First, "Deb" reports on Goodreads the authors' Top Four Villains of decision making:
1. You encounter a choice. But narrow framing makes you miss options.
I don't know why they settled on confirmation bias, which means only giving credence to evidence that best fits your current beliefs. (I say current because, contrary to the assertions of some 20thC philosophers, beliefs change all the time and are not a coherent system.) It is but one of a range of biases we all carry with us, aka critical thinking dispositions or cognitive styles. These include self-enhancement bias, which causes us to believe we are more likely to be right than an opponent, and convenience bias, which makes us place excessive faith in the first thing that comes to mind.
3. You make a choice. But short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one.
This echoes Ainslie's posit of hyperbolic discounting, where we give more weight to short than long term consequences (evident in every Quarterly stock market report) and even Mischel, Schoda and Rodriguez's famous marshmallow study, which claims that an impatient four year old is doomed for life. While true as far as it goes, it neglects the fact that most of the time, emotion guides you to do the right thing, not the wrong one. It also seems to demonize emotion and put it at odds with rationality, which is a mistake that has confounded discussion on this topic for decades. Emotions, specifically their role in assessing threat and reflexively reacting to sensory input, comprise the first, essential step in any decision making process the body, which includes the brain, makes. See my other post on this subject.
4. Then you live with it. But you’ll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold.
Overconfidence in our beliefs has been amply demonstrated in memory tests, most alarmingly in relation to eye-witness testimony. Examples of this can be viewed in practically any episode of Matlock or Columbo shared on Youtube (RIP Andy G. and Peter F.).
Overcoming this instinct to see things only one way is often emphasized in decision-making literature. It's a big vs. limited picture thing. Overemphasized, in my opinion: people who always see the forest rather than the trees can barely make a coherent sentence.
1. Look at a wider range of possibilities. For instance, ask what you'd do if all the options you're considering disappeared.
This happens to superheros ALL THE TIME.
2. If you can't decide, ask yourself what advice you'd give to a friend. Usually you'll have a quick answer.
Superheros have sidekicks who are always good for a bit of friendly advice, like, "You're crazy, this will never work."
3. Avoid bad assumptions and confirmation bias in your analysis...
Superheros are often at odds with those around them, who don't get the way criminals think and jump to false and counterproductive solutions.
4. Give weight to base rates more than blind optimism about your perspective. If you open a restaurant, for instance, chances are it'll fail. That's more relevant than the fact you're a great chef.
In other words, listen to your mother. Where would Tony Stark be if he didn't believe he could single-handedly build a super-suit and save the free world? Where would Jim Carey be if he hadn't written himself that million dollar check when he was a nobody? A nobody, I expect. So much good has been done in the world due to "blind" optimism. The truth is, most people can't make the distinction between blindness and vision. I hate this advice.
5. Identify your values and priorities, and let them help guide your decisions.
Superheros have very clear values (truth, justice) and priorities (Hulk bash bad guys). And lastly,
6. Deadlines ("tripwires") drive action -- whether the action is finishing, reevaluating, or quitting.
Who ever heard of a Superhero story without a ticking clock? And if Superman is too late, he just turns back time. Nothing's too big for these guys (and some gals), no apocalyptic scenario too bleak. And, like Taylor Swift, they never, ever, ever (ever) quit.
So the obvious conclusion is... create a Superhero game to teach decision making. Yes! Somebody make it so and tell me about it. Until then check out Quest For Knowledge.